Switzerland's general election on October 22nd is set to see the populist right make gains due to European migration concerns
and shatter Green dreams of getting into government.
The Swiss are voting for both houses of parliament, with all 200 seats in the lower chamber and all 46 in the upper house up for grabs.
At the last election in 2019, the right-wing populist Swiss People's Party (SVP), the wealthy Alpine nation's leading political force, was unsettled by the dramatic rise of the Green Party.
While the SVP fell back 12 seats to 53 in the National Council, the lower house, the Greens gained 17 seats to 28, becoming the fourth biggest party.
The smaller Green Liberal party was the election's other big winners, up nine seats to 16, finishing sixth.
The ecologist parties "made significant progress because the climate issue was a central concern", said Pascal Sciarini, professor of political science at the University of Geneva.
"General awareness among the population was somewhat new four years ago, and the youth climate strikes made the issue very visible."
However, the Covid-19 pandemic put a dampener on major climate protests and seems to have taken the momentum out of the youth-driven environmentalist surge.
Getting used to climate change
That said, global warming remains a major concern as the Swiss watch their Alpine glaciers melt away at exceptional speed.
All the major parties have adopted a more green agenda.
"It's as if people have got used to climate change," Sciarini told AFP.
Analysts say the environmental parties' expected drop in the polls could also be down to the Swiss feeling they have dealt with the issue by approving a new climate law in a popular vote in June -- a key thing the Greens had been pushing for.
Swiss opinion polls only relate to the lower chamber.
The Council of States, the upper house, is dominated by the centre-right The Centre and a right-wing party called FDP.The Liberals. Elections rarely change the balance in the upper chamber.
According to the latest polls on voting for the lower house, the SVP should obtain close to its 2015 high-water mark of 29 percent, at the expense of FDP.The Liberals, while The Centre looks set to flatline.
The centre-left Social Democrats are expected to rise, while the Greens and the Green Liberals are likely to fall back.
"I imagine that some of those voters from the left who voted Green in 2019 will return to the Social Democrats in 2023," said Sciarini.
'Mass immigration' theme
The SVP has succeeded in imposing its favourite theme, "mass immigration", on the election campaign, with posters featuring anti-migration slogans and calls for the closure of Switzerland's borders and the mobilisation of the army.
Landlocked Switzerland is not in the European Union but is part of the Schengen open-borders zone that also includes most of the EU's 27 members.
"The current tension in Europe over the management of migration flows also affects Switzerland," said Oscar Mazzoleni, a professor of political science at the University of Lausanne.
"This opens up political opportunities for the SVP," he told AFP.
The cost of living has also stolen the limelight from climate change, with inflation and surging health insurance costs hitting people's pockets.
The Social Democrats hope to make gains on these issues, and are calling for reforms that would index health insurance contributions to income.
However, most votes will tend towards apathy -- general election turnout is typically around 45 percent.
A record 5,909 candidates are standing for the National Council, of whom 41 percent are women.
The 246 newly elected parliamentarians will choose the seven members of the government on December 13.
The seats are shared out 2-2-2-1 among the four main parties.
The Greens -- who have never been in government -- had been pushing for a seat after the 2019 election. Gains this time would make their demands even stronger.
However, the opinion polls suggest their chances of upsetting the so-called "magic formula" division of seats may have peaked.
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