Switzerland’s continued population growth has been a subject of frequent discussions, with politicians and economists weighing in on whether such a significant demographic evolution is a positive or negative development for the country’s future (read more about this below).
But how soon could this actually happen?
Experts have divergent opinions on this matter, except to agree that it will happen well before the mid-century mark.
For instance, Céline Schmid from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) believes that the population will likely swell to 10 million people within the next decade — by 2034.
However, Georges T. Roos, president of the Swiss Association for Futures Studies has a different view.
"I think the 10-million mark by 2040 is more realistic,” he said in an interview with Nau news platform.
Whichever of the two scenarios turns out to be correct, it is certain that people in Switzerland will not wake up one day to find out that there are suddenly 10 million residents in their country.
That’s because the population growth will happen gradually, with more people trickling in each year to boost the numbers.
Experts do agree, however, on the causes of the population growth.
There are two main ones:
Longevity
The longer life expectancy is the secondary of the two factors, but it is nevertheless important.
According to Roos, "life expectancy continues to rise. By 2040, the average woman in Switzerland could live to 90.”
READ ALSO: Why living in Switzerland can prolong your life
But there is an even more decisive factor at play:
Immigration
According to FSO, over 80 percent of the population growth in recent decades was due to the increase in the number of foreign nationals.
In the future too, Switzerland will continue to grow primarily through immigration.
All experts agree, on the other hand, than no significant population growth will be driven by the birth rate.
“It is unlikely that the birth rate will suddenly increase; it has been declining for years,” Roos added.
Strained infrastructure
As demographers and politicians have been pointing out, increasing population will present new challenges and burden the country’s infrastructure.
"Mobility, housing and health system will the three biggest problem areas," according to Roos. “The existing infrastructure must be massively expanded in order to keep pace with the population growth.
READ ALSO: What Switzerland needs to do to accommodate 10 million residents
On the positive side, "immigration will alleviate the shortage of skilled workers," according to Roos. "And most migrants arrive when they are of working age, which will help Switzerland to support its ageing population."
Not everyone sees the positive aspects of higher immigration — and the population growth.
The populist Swiss People’s Party (SVP) argues that such a significant hike will have “devastating consequences for our small country,”
It has therefore gathered 114,600 signatures (more than the 100,000 required), demanding a national vote on curbing immigration.
The ‘No to Switzerland of 10 million people’ push calls for the Federal Council and parliament to stop the influx of foreigners when the permanent resident population exceeds 9.5 million.
The date for the vote has not been set yet.
The government, in the meantime, has said that curbing immigration “would likely result in an unprecedented economic vulnerability."
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