With nearly 140 points awaiting ratification, the new agreements, also known as ‘Bilateral III’, define future relations between Bern and Brussels across key areas such as free movement of people, public health, food safety, and electricity supply, among others.
Whether or not the treaties will actually be implemented – in their entirety or partially – will not be known until one or several referendums on this issue will be held in 2027 or 2028.
In the meantime, however, 2026 will be an important year as well, because we will know more about what the future holds for the treaties and relations between Switzerland and the EU in general.
What lies ahead?
Two crucial events will be held in 2026, which will define the shape and form that ‘Bilateral III’ will ultimately take.
The first is that the two chambers of the Parliament – the National Council and the Council of States – will debate the treaties at length this year.
Given the controversial nature of some of the agreements – especially those related to the free movement of people – as well as the opposition of legislators from the Swiss People’s Party (SVP), which is the strongest presence in the parliament, the debates are expected to be heated.
Another defining moment: the referendum to curb immigration from the EU
The vote on this issue, scheduled for November 2026, will be super important in determining how the future relations between Bern and Brussels will evolve.
That’s because the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons (AFMP), which allows EU citizens an unlimited access to the Swiss labour market - is the backbone of the existing bilateral treaties.
But if Swiss voters reject it at the ballot box – and some polls suggest this is a possibility – then not only the new but also the current agreements will be at risk, impacting immigration from the European Union in a major way.
READ ALSO: How could Switzerland's new treaties with the EU impact immigration?
Curbing immigration
Therefore, the outcome of the SVP’s ‘No to 10 million’ initiative will either ease Switzerland’s path to a deeper cooperation with the EU, or seriously impair it.
In that way, it is potentially a major game-changer.
The proposal stipulates that “Switzerland’s permanent resident population must not exceed ten million people before 2050. From 2050 onwards, the Federal Council may adjust this limit annually.”
Currently, the country's population stands at just over 9 million, including nearly 2.5 million foreign nationals - that is, over 27 percent of the population.
To achieve this goal, both the federal government and the cantons must “ensure sustainable population development, in particular with a view to protecting the environment and in the interest of the sustainable conservation of natural resources, the performance of infrastructure, healthcare, and Swiss social security."
READ ALSO: What exactly does the Swiss 'no to 10 million' anti-immigration proposal aim to do?
So by the end of 2026 – after MPs and Swiss voters have had their say – the future of the new batch of bilateral agreements will be much clearer.
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