The ongoing war in the Middle East and prospect of a prolonged regional conflict has caused several European airlines to cancel flights, with industry insiders warning of months of knock-on effects, potential travel disruption and accompanying price rises already hitting travellers' pockets.
Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) has announced the cancellation of 1,000 flights in April alone and many other major European airlines have announced cancellations or route cutbacks.
Since Israel and the US began its attacks on Iran in February, many carriers are also avoiding airspace in the region so delays, diversions and disrupted travel are also possible across the Middle East.
Why are airlines cancelling flights?
In a sentence: increased costs caused by rising fuel prices.
With maritime trade slowed in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude has spiked and hovered as high as $120 per barrel. News wire Reuters reports that jet fuel costs have doubled in Europe and increased by over 70 percent in Asia.
Speaking to The Independent, SAS spokeswoman Alexandra Lindgren Kaoukji stated that “the sharp increase in fuel costs is affecting the entire European aviation system, and we have therefore, as earlier communicated, also made certain price adjustments linked to the current fuel situation.
“The level varies depending on the route, but the principle is the same as for other European airlines facing the same conditions.
“The decision to make these short‑term adjustments is about acting early in response to a global cost shock that is affecting the entire industry,” she added.
Which routes are being cancelled or affected?
Flights travelling to the Middle East or crossing airspace in the Middle East have been impacted the most.
Many airlines have suspended flights to the wider region, notably any flights to Israeli destinations, as well as popular tourist locations such as Dubai and Doha.
Which airlines are cancelling?
Several European airlines have cancelled flights in response to the war and rising fuel prices.
SAS has cancelled 1000 flights in April alone, citing increased fuel costs and a sector shock, though the majority of cancelled flights in March have so far been domestic routes in Norway with a small number to Sweden and Denmark, according to a SAS statement sent to AFP.
READ ALSO: Scandinavian airline SAS to cancel 'at least a thousand' flights after fuel prices surge
Air France services to Beirut and Tel Aviv are suspended until March 21st and to Dubai and Riyadh until March 20th.
Norwegian Air has cancelled its Dubai flights for the winter season and delayed new route launches in the region.
Spanish airline Air Europa has cancelled flights to Tel Aviv until 10th April.
British Airways flights to Dubai, Doha, Bahrain, Amman, Tel Aviv are suspended, many until the summer season.
Italian airline ITA Airways has cancelled all flights to Dubai until 28th March and suspended Tel Aviv services until 9th April.
The Dutch carrier KLM has cancelled all Tel Aviv flights for the rest of the winter season and those to Riyadh, Dammam and Dubai until 28th March.
Lufthansa Group (including Lufthansa, Swiss, Brussels and Austrian Airlines) has cancelled routes to Dubai until 28th March and Tel Aviv 9th April.
Hungarian budget airline Wizz Air has cancelled flights to Israel until 29th March and services to Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Amman and Jeddah until mid-September.
Greece's largest airline, Aegean, has also cancelled services to Beirut, Tel Aviv and Amman until April 22nd, and Erbil and Baghdad until May 24th. Its Dubai services are suspended until April 19 and Riyadh until April 18.
Finnair has cancelled its Dubai flights until March 29th and Doha flights until July 2nd and is diverting routes to avoid airspace in Iraq, Iran, Syria and Israel.
How long will it go on for?
It's unclear. With the unpredictability of geopolitics at the moment, it's almost impossible to say.
What seems plausible is that the conflict could go on for some time, meaning fuel prices rises - and with it, further travel disruption and ticket prices hikes - could continue for the foreseeable future.
"The longer it goes on, the bleaker it will look," Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary told Reuters this week.
While downplaying more immediate shocks, O’Leary has also stated recently that if fuel price rises “drag on for six months” it could become a major problem for airlines.
Will prices go up?
It's likely. With increased costs, many airlines will pass that onto passengers.
Similarly, with reduced services across the aviation sector some carriers may try to take advantage of the slew of cancellations and capitalise by increasing their prices.
Airline executives have admitted as much. SAS's Lindgren Kaoukji told The Independent that as a knock-on consequence of the conflict and fuel price rises, "an average SAS flight will cost 500 SEK more (£40.30), while a transatlantic flight will be approximately 2,700 SEK (£218) more expensive."
Air France-KLM has stated that it has already hiked its long-haul ticket prices due to fuel prices.
READ ALSO: Air France-KLM hikes long-haul ticket prices
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