The premise of the upcoming ’No to 10 million’ initiative is that in order to prevent Switzerland’s current population of just over 9 million people from reaching the 10-million mark, it is imperative to stem the flow of immigrants from the European Union.
READ MORE: What exactly does the Swiss 'no to 10 million' anti-immigration proposal aim to do?
The proposal is radical and highly contentious, but it is not exactly ground-breaking: several similar initiatives have been brought to the ballot box in past years.
In fact, according to political scientist Michael Hermann, the issue of immigration has been sparking intense political debates, as well as referendums, for decades.
But even in different demographic contexts, the arguments put forward by each side "have remained remarkably consistent over the years,” he said.
Primary concern: Overpopulation
Let’s look at the previous bids to limit immigration to Switzerland:
1970: Schwarzenbach Initiative Against Foreign Overpopulation
Just over 6.1 million people lived in Switzerland 56 years ago, but immigration-driven overpopulation was already on the country’s radar.
A right-wing politician, James Schwarzenbach, launched a proposal dubbed the ’Schwarzenbach Initiative’, which called for capping the foreign population at 10 percent - a measure that would have entailed the expulsion of 350,000 people already living in Switzerland.
It was rejected by 54 percent of voters.
1974: "Against foreign domination and overpopulation of Switzerland"
This particular proposal demanded that the number of foreigners in Switzerland not exceed 12 percent of the overall population (in 2026, that number is 27 percent).
This too did not pass, with 66 percent of ‘No’ votes.
1977: "Against foreign domination"
Deeming the 1974 proposal to be too radical, James Schwarzenbach launched a more moderate version.
It called for the proportion of foreigners to be reduced to 12.5 percent over a 10-year period , which meant that 300,000 residents would have to leave Switzerland.
70.5 percent said 'No'.
1988: "For the Limitation of Immigration"
In yet another attempt to keep foreign population from growing, rightwing factions proposed that the number of immigrants be lower than the number of people leaving Switzerland.
The idea was turned down by 67 percent of voters.
2000: "For the Regulation of Immigration"
By the beginning of the 21st century, Switzerland’s population grew to just over 7.1 million, prompting the hard-right to launch the so-called "18% Initiative."
It sought to cap the resident foreign population at 18 percent.
The result: 64 percent voted against it.
2014: “Against Mass Immigration"
Twelve years after the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons was signed between Switzerland and the EU, the SVP launched an initiative targeting this treaty.
It called for Switzerland to regain control over foreign immigration through the use of quotas.
The bid was narrowly approved – 50.3 percent voted in favour – but the measure has never been implemented.
2014: ‘Stop Overpopulation’
In the same year as the SVP’s “Against Mass Immigration" initiative was voted on, the Ecopop association had launched its own proposal to limit immigration to a maximum of 0.2 percent of the population per year.
The measure was rejected by 74 percent of voters.
2020: "For Moderate Immigration"
As the 2014 initiative against mass immigration had not been implemented, the SVP submitted a new proposal - the "Limitation Initiative."
It called for the abolition of the free movement of persons agreement.
The SVP warned about urban sprawl and increasing pressure on key infrastructure, such as housing, health system, and public transport, among others – the arguments it is citing in the upcoming ‘No to 10 million’ inititive as well.
The result: 62 percent of voters opposed this measure.
Overwhelming rejection rate
All these bids except one (“Against Mass Immigration") had been soundly rejected by Swiss voters.
This brings up the question of which way the June 14th referendum will go.
The latest voter survey released on March 18th indicates a very close outcome: 47 percent of respondents said they were against the SVP proposal, while 45 percent supported it.
However, 8 percent of those surveyed in the March poll had not yet made up their minds on this issue, which means that the vote could go either way.
Comments