It may be difficult to wrap your head around the notion that congressional elections in the United States may influence the evolution of Switzerland’s politics and economy, but that is the case.
As the past several years have shown, Donald Trump is not a fan of Switzerland, having criticised the country on multiple occasions.
READ MORE: US president Trump says he has another problem with 'entitled' Switzerland
He even admitted that he initially imposed 39-percent trade tariffs in 2025 because he didn't like the then Swiss president, Karin Keller-Sutter.
As a result of these hefty tariffs, Swiss economy lost a significant momentum, even if the downturn was temporary.
This goes to show how Switzerland is dependant on decisions and actions of the US administration.
What’s at stake for Switzerland in mid-term elections?
Basically, it comes down to who wins and who loses.
If the Democrats win both chambers – that is, the House of Representatives and the Senate - that would be the best possible scenario for Switzerland because Trump’s room for maneuver in terms of foreign policy would be restricted.
If, however, the Republicans will maintain control of both chambers, the president would have free rein in pursuing his current trade agenda.
According to Migros Bank economist Santosh Brivio, which party ends up having the legislative control “is particularly significant for [Swiss] sectors with substantial US business operations, such as pharmaceuticals, mechanical engineering, and watchmaking.”
What would happen in case of a divided Congress – that is, the balance of power would be split?
Existing tariffs will remain in place, Brivio said, though implementing further restrictive measures would become more difficult.
“For Swiss exporters, this would at least reduce the risk of new trade barriers,” he pointed out.
On the other hand, there would be “potential for further escalation” if Republicans retain control.
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