The year 2025 was not an easy year for some sectors of Switzerland’s economy – especially for the export-oriented ones, which have been impacted by steep US tariffs.
However, according to official forecasts, the outlook for 2026 is more positive overall, though some problems will remain.
Let’s look at what lies ahead.
‘Slightly higher growth forecast’
According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), “the Federal Government Expert Group on Business Cycles has slightly revised upwards its forecast for economic growth in 2026.”
Swiss gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise by 1.1 percent in 2026 - higher than an earlier assessment of 0.9 percent.
Specifically, “the reduction in US tariffs [from 39 to 15 percent] has improved prospects for the sectors concerned.”
However, while “foreign trade is expected to provide a positive, albeit moderate, stimulus’ for the economy, the government’s expert group foresees the domestic demand to remain the main driver of growth.
“Investment activity is likely to strengthen slightly,” the experts predict.
Additionally, inflation is forecast to average 0.2 percent - the same low rate as in 2025 – and that means that “private consumption is expected to remain solid.”
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What about wages?
A survey carried out by the KOF Economic Institute has revealed that companies in Switzerland are expecting an average nominal wage increase of 1.3 percent in 2026.
However, the actual pay hikes will vary from one sector to another - as they usually do.
Wages will go up most significantly in the construction industry – by around 1.7 percent. This is due to the shortage of skilled employees in this sector, as well as a strong union representing these workers.
Employees in the hospitality, pharmaceutical, and financial sectors can also look forward to above-average wage increases.
However, the outlook is less positive in retail, wholesale, and manufacturing – where the increase is likely to be barely more than 1 percent.
The outlook is not consistently positive, though: it is particularly somber for the jobs.
International organisations in Geneva have had to cut hundreds of positions in 2025 after the Trump administration reduced or withdrew the funding for UN agencies.
And even more redundancies are expected for 2026.
For instance, UBS said it expects “approximately 3,000 job cuts in Switzerland,” while the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation announced that it is planning to eliminate some 900 jobs over the next three years.
The same job-loss scenario is in place at Novartis, where 550 Swiss jobs will be scrapped by the end of 2027.
Additionally, more than a third (37 percent) of companies said they could cut jobs in Switzerland over the coming 12 months, and a similar percentage (35 percent) are anticipating shifting Swiss jobs to other countries.
READ ALSO: Where are all the jobs set to be lost in Switzerland in 2026?
But there is good news on the horizon as well
On the positive side, Swiss jobs will not completely dry up in 2026.
To the contrary: according to KOF Economic Institute, “key indicators continue to point to a solid labour market.”
That is because “labour shortage remains relatively high in almost all sectors and the same applies to the number of job vacancies.”
Experts at Economiesuisse, the umbrella organisation for the Swiss business sector, also say that the subdued economic outlook should not have too great an impact on the Swiss labour market.
Despite cuts in many companies, numerous new jobs will also be created, they say.
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